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DFSFish’ EPL Preview: Gameweek 4

Hello everyone and welcome to my gameweek 4 article! Hope you all enjoy and let’s get right to it.

Note: When I say consider a team for clean sheet odds, it’s a GPP play. You correlate the back line and goalie as a clean sheet would give you 11-14 points off the clean sheet alone. A win would add 5 points and then add on peripheral stats.

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Early game:

Liverpool at Leicester

Prediction: 3-1 Liverpool win. Liverpool look to continue their hot start to the Premier league in a tough away match. Leicester took another victory away to Southampton last week on a Harry Maguire header in the final minutes. The Foxes have also enjoyed a fine start, winning 2 of their 3 games. This is a game where Liverpool will want 3 points. I think the Reds win here but their 3 straight clean sheets will come to an end.

Andrew Robertson (source: wikimedia)

Liverpool players: The top option is always Mo Salah along with the other 2 players in attack, but I have really enjoyed how Naby Keita has played this year. He didn’t have the strongest of games last week, but I wouldn’t scare away from him in GPP. Andrew Robertson played well last week sending in 5 crosses while creating a big chance according to SofaScore. He was getting forward as Liverpool held a good amount of possession. Even in this tough road match I like Robertson and Alexander-Arnold this week.

Leicester players: The Foxes will be without their top striker this week in Jamie Vardy as he is still on suspension. They’ll rely on Kelechi Ihenacho to find the back of the net this week. It’s unfortunate for the Foxes as we all know how good Vardy is against top 6 teams. James Maddison will look to bounce back after underperforming for players last week, he should come at a discounted price.

Main Slate:

Fulham at Brighton

Prediction: 1-1 Draw. Although Brighton have 3 points in 3 games, I think they haven’t played terrible this year. They held Liverpool to one goal last week away at Liverpool. Fulham got their first win last week against Burnley and will look to gain some momentum. I could see Fulham snatching a win here but Brighton are going to be a tough beat.

Fulham players: Aleksandar Mitrovic got on the score sheet last week twice and is looking like he can continue his fine play from last season. Andre Schurrle stole my eye on Saturday as he had 11 shots attempted and scored 1 goal. Overall Fulham looked good last week and there’s a fair few amount of options from this team, but Brighton will be a stingy team.

Brighton players: Pascal Gross seems to have a fair share in the set pieces for Brighton and had a decent point total of 4 on Draftkings last week despite being a heavy dog away to liverpool. Jahanbakhsh was used as a sub last week, I’m hoping he will make his way into the starting 11 because I’m eager to watch him play. Martin Montoya has been a nice addition to this Brighton side and could be getting forward in this matchup. Montoya has started against Liverpool and Manchester United so Fulham should be a better matchup for him to potentially get forward.

Bournemouth at Chelsea

Prediction: 2-0 Chelsea win. Chelsea struggled to break through last week but dominated the game with over 80% possession. The defense still seems to be a concern for them but I like them at home this weekend. Bournemouth drew Everton last week and have 7 points in 3 matches but have had a fairly easy start to the season. This game will be a tough test for them and I think Chelsea will control this match and cruise to a victory.

Chelsea players: Hazard finally started and he ended up getting a goal on a penalty but had an effective game. He is priced up and will have to see starting 11 to see if he’s viable in cash. If Willian starts I wouldn’t consider Hazard in cash. Alonso should flourish again this week and I love him as a GPP target week in and week out under Sarri. The outside backs for Chelsea sent in 9 crosses last week, they’re going to get their chances this week.

Marcos Alonso record in 2018/19: 3 games, 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 clean sheet, 2 penalty achieved

Bournemouth players: With Stanislas out Fraser will continue to own set pieces for this team, but I don’t know how many he will get in this game. This is a GPP team this week, with the likes of Josh King and Callum Wilson on the radar, we have seen Chelsea break down in defense at times. Begovic could see a lot of shots this week as well.

Southampton at Crystal Palace

Prediction: 2-1 Palace win. Southampton had their hearts broken last week in the last minute to Leicester, and get a tough opponent this week as well. Crystal palace lost last week to an inform Watford but I still think this Palace team will shine at times this year.

Palace players: Zaha will lead the line as he always done. We haven’t seen the Milivojevic penalty this year and something tells me that this will be coming soon. A pretty decent cash option this week would be Townsend with plenty of open play value. If you’re looking for a lower owned player to get Palace exposure in GPP, then play Benteke (Sorloth if he starts, I actually like him more). Remember Southampton love to give up shots. Consider the entire back line and goalie for Palace, as they’ll have good clean sheet odds.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka is available for the game as he served one-match ban already.

Southampton players: There’s really only one viable player I see in this fixture and that’d be Elyounoussi. He did a fantastic job last game and burned me as I got off of him last second. Southampton are in a poor spot away from home. There will be better spots on this slate.

Huddersfield at Everton

Prediction: 3-0 Everton win. There’s not much to say about Huddersfield. They aren’t a good team and they drew Cardiff at home last week where they’d like to get three points there. Everton got a red card last week but were able to get a draw with Bournemouth and get a great matchup here.

Leighton Baines (source: wikimedia)

Everton players: Lock Sigurdsson into your cash lineups on both sites this week. You could even argue Tosun would be a cash option this week, but I won’t be going there most likely. Consider any of the attacking players for Everton in GPP. Along with their forwards, their defenders could be an intriguing options. Coleman and Baines could get in on a goal and will have chances to get forward. Everton are a strong play and don’t be scared to play them at home.

Huddersfield players: I won’t touch this team at all. Fanduel you could play their defenders. Wagner will be forced to used Lossl this week, and I actually like him more than Hammer.

Wolverhampton at West Ham

Prediction: 3-1 Wolverhampton win. West Ham are off to a rough start, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to get much better this week. Wolverhampton proved that they can hang with the big boys after drawing Manchester City last week. The Wolves will be confident heading into this matchup and should at least snag a point here.

West Ham players: Marko Arnautovic is up in the air for this weekend and that would be a huge blow to the Hammers. This could be a high scoring fixture so consider the likes of Felipe Anderson as GPP targets this week. The set piece situation on this team is a bit of a headache so I would avoid making West Ham players as your core for cash.

Wolverhampton players: Joao Moutinho has been on corners for the Wolves this season and has been a very good player for them so far. He has been priced up a bit and he’s in an awkward range. He’s not a bad play this week but his price is not ideal. This team could put up some goals this week, and once again Adama Traore came on and made a great impact off the bench. If he starts I think he’s a top option on this team.

Newcastle at Manchester City

Prediction: 3-0 City win. City ended up dropping points last week and will look to bounce back this week. There’s really no reason to think they’ll struggle this week. Newcastle held less than 20% possession last week and this week we could see something similar unless there is a change in tactics.

City players: No De Bruyne for City still. Depending on how early they break through this game could get ugly. I think Mahrez finds his way back into the starting 11 and he will be my top option on this slate but with this game being the late game we won’t know during lineup construction time. Mendy has been priced up and I don’t like him in cash at his price, even if Pep rolls the 3-back formation.

Newcastle Players: In the same boat as Huddersfield, there’s not much to consider here. The forwards are all GPP punt plays.

Sunday Games:

Arsenal at Cardiff

Prediction: 3-0 Arsenal win. Emery finally got a win last week and things are looking up with a plus matchup against Cardiff, although it is away. Cardiff snatched a point last week against Huddersfield but have a tough test now at home.

Aubameyang & Mkhitaryan (source: wikimedia)

Arsenal players: They weren’t overly impressive last week but got the job done. This team needs Ozil in my opinion. They lacked creativity all game. Aubameyang is out of form at the moment but I think he just needs one to breakthrough. I think Aubameyang will find the score sheet not once, but twice this week. Arsenal will have clean sheet odds this week, so the back line might be in play depending on how Cardiff role out.

Cardiff players: I want to see Cardiff score in this game but I don’t see it. Joe Ralls was great last week but that was against Huddersfield. If Junior Hoilett starts I don’t mind him in GPP.

Manchester United at Burnley

Prediction: 2-1 United win. I’m not a Mourinho fan, and the game against Spurs proved to me that he has lost this team. He should find a win this week but it won’t be easy. Burnley may be playing their last Europa league game this week and that will help them a lot in the league but this week they will struggle again.

United players: Alexis Sanchez should start this game and I think he’ll be a must have on a short slate. I’m not a fan of Pogba or Lukaku unless it’s a GPP. Luke Shaw and Antonio Valencia should get forward in this matchup and I would consider them in all formats. United have a decent clean sheet chance but it’s a tough matchup.

Burnley players: Berg-Gudmundsson was forced off last game and his status is unknown. JBG being out would be a big blow for Burnley. Lowton had another 5 crosses last game and may get the chance to whip some more in if Mourinho elects to go defensive after going up. His value may depend on game flow but he could rack up defensive stats as well.

Tottenham at Watford

Prediction: 2-0 Spurs win. The Spurs got an impressive win away at United and will look to keep their undefeated season together. Watford have come out of the gates flying but face a real test at home to the Spurs.

Spurs players: Harry Kane broke out of his August slump and doesn’t look like the World Cup has affected him that much. From a cash perspective I will always take Trippier over Eriksen but this is going to be a small slate so both are viable. Trippier has taken over corners for the Spurs and even some set pieces for them. Eriksen’s value has diminished a bit.

Watford players: I don’t think Watford are a bad team but they have a tough test here. The 4-2-2-2 formation seems to be working wonders for them. I think the likes of Gray are okay GPP plays considering the size of the slate. Holebas continues to impress but will have limited opportunities this game.

I hope you all enjoyed the preview! Make sure you follow me on Twitter @DFSFish for any questions!

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Nick

DFS, poker and math enthusiast. Author of weekly FPL preview.

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